July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) Monday closed down -0.06 (-0.37%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed down -7.60 (-1.60%).Sugar prices on Monday gave up an early advance and closed lower after a -4% plunge in crude prices (CLQ25) sparked long liquidation in sugar futures. Lower crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.
Sugar prices have fallen over the past three months and posted 4-year nearest-futures lows last Wednesday due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% year-over-year (y/y) to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage.
The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast
