The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has revised its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop output, lowering the forecast to 170.9 million tonnes. This is a slight reduction from the 171.7 million tonnes projected in the previous month. The updated estimate was announced in Abiove’s monthly report released on Wednesday, March 19, 2025.
Reasons for the Downward Revision
The downward adjustment in soybean production is attributed to adverse weather conditions that have impacted major soybean-growing regions in Brazil, particularly during critical planting and growing phases. Prolonged periods of drought in key producing states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná, combined with uneven rainfall, have led to reduced yields and prompted Abiove to revise its projections.
Record Soymeal and Soyoil Production in 2024
Despite the downward revision of the 2024/25 soybean crop output, soymeal production and exports and soyoil output in 2024 reached record levels. According to Abiove’s final data:
- Soymeal Production: The output of soymeal in 2024 hit an all-time high, supported by strong global demand and increased processing capacity within Brazil.
- Soymeal Exports: Brazil also experienced a significant rise in soymeal exports, with shipments driven by growing demand from key markets such as the European Union, China, and Southeast Asian countries.
- Soyoil Output: Brazil’s soyoil production saw record levels as domestic consumption increased, particularly for biodiesel blending and industrial use.
Impact on Global Soybean Supply
Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, plays a critical role in the global soybean supply chain. The slight reduction in the country’s 2024/25 output estimate is expected to have a moderate impact on international soybean prices, especially given the strong demand from China and other major importers.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, Abiove has indicated that weather patterns in the coming months will be closely monitored, as any further disruptions could lead to additional revisions in the 2024/25 estimates. The association remains optimistic that favorable conditions in the latter part of the growing season could mitigate further losses and stabilize overall production.
The global agricultural market will be keeping a close eye on Brazil’s soybean production, as any fluctuations in output can significantly impact international trade dynamics, supply chains, and commodity prices.
