ARTICLE 2 #Sugar Production

India is set to fall short of its sugar export quota for the 2024–25 season, managing to ship only around 775,000 tons out of the 1 million-ton limit. This shortfall is mainly due to Brazil’s cheaper sugar flooding the global market, which has lowered international prices and made Indian exports less competitive. Additionally, higher domestic sugar prices in India discouraged millers from exporting. Industry players are now looking to carry forward the unshipped quota into the next season.

Despite a sharp drop in molasses prices, all sugar factories in Indonesia continue to operate without disruption, Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman confirmed on Friday. Speaking at a press briefing in Jakarta following a meeting with the Lampung Provincial Government and representatives of farmer associations, Minister Sulaiman dismissed concerns over a potential halt in sugar production.

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Monday closed up +0.15 (+0.95%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +1.30 (+0.28%).Sugar prices on Monday climbed to 1.5-week highs and settled higher as dollar weakness (DXY00) spurred short-covering in sugar futures.

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed down -0.47 (-2.83%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -15.50 (-3.31%).Sugar prices sold off sharply on Wednesday, with London sugar posting a 1-week low. The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is undercutting sugar prices after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp on Wednesday projected that Thailand's 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.07 (+0.431%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -1.20 (-0.26%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Friday. Sugar has carryover support from Thursday, when Unica reported that the sugar content in Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush declined, signaling lower sugar production. The sugar content in crushed cane in the first half of September in Brazil dropped to 154.58 kilogram per ton (kg/ton) versus 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier.

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -6.40 (-1.38%). Sugar prices gave up an early advance on Tuesday and turned lower, with NY sugar falling from a 1.75-month nearest-futures high. Sugar prices retreated after Covrig Analytics projected a +4.1 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season.