Nayara Energy (an Indian refiner with Russian ties) has been impacted by European Union sanctions: it has had to cut refinery runs to 70‑80% capacity and resort to shipping via sanctioned (“dark”) tanker fleets to maintain imports/exports.
Indian Oil Corporation (India’s largest refiner/retailer) says it will comply with US sanctions on Russian oil — which could shift its crude‑oil sourcing strategy away from previously discounted Russian barrels.
On the ethanol side: the Indian Sugar & Bio‑Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) warns that reduced ethanol procurement from sugar‑mills and a shift toward grain‑based ethanol feedstocks could strain sugar mills’ cash flows and delay payments to cane farmers. India is accelerating its ethanol‑blending programmed (e.g., achieving ~20% ethanol in petrol ahead of schedule) as part of fuel/energy‑security policy.
Supply‑chain & geopolitics: Sanctions on Russian oil and related vessels impact India’s import of crude from Russia. This can raise costs or force sourcing from more expensive suppliers. Some refiners were benefiting from discounted Russian crude; disruptions could affect margins or export capacity. The push for ethanol blending is meant to reduce oil import dependence and support farmers but has trade‑offs (feedstock shifts, farmer payment risks, technical issues). Sugar mills invested heavily in ethanol capacity; if procurement falls or policy shifts toward grain‑based ethanol, mills + cane‑farmers are exposed. Older vehicles or infrastructure may face challenges with higher ethanol‑blend fuels (though the government says concerns are largely unfounded).
How Indian refiners adjust crude sourcing in response to sanctions (which countries/suppliers fill the gap) Whether the government tightens or loosens rules on ethanol feedstocks (sugarcane vs grain) & the impact on farmer payments
Effects on fuel pricing, vehicle issues (related to ethanol blends), and consumer sentiment Export behavior of Indian refiners if domestic runs shift and margins change Policy announcements around blending targets (e.g., E20 → E30) and their implementation
