14Apr
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, April 13 – After weathering the worst downturn in over a year, bullish investors in the corn market are finally seeing a payoff. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures surged 6.5% last week, marking the strongest five-day rally since late 2023.
The rally comes after weeks of volatility fueled by Washington’s aggressive tariff announcements on April 2, targeting imports from multiple countries. Most of those tariffs were later scaled back, sparing countries other than China. However, the initial shock had already shaken global commodity markets.
Despite this, corn prices held firm. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) added momentum to the rally by lowering domestic corn supply estimates, signaling that corn might be undervalued. This drove corn futures to three-month highs, surprising many in the market.
📈 Speculators React to Market Whiplash
While many speculators had reduced their long positions amid March’s uncertainty, those who remained saw gains. Money managers slightly cut their net long positions to 53,576 contracts as of April 8, but prices still surged by 4.5% in the following three days.
Soybeans also joined the rally, climbing 5% and hitting six-week highs—despite escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. This came as a surprise, given that China is the top buyer of U.S. soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans dominate the market this time of year, lessening the impact of U.S.-China friction. Money managers were caught off-guard by the soybean rally, having increased their net short positions in soybean futures to a 15-week high of 50,447 contracts.
🌱 Soy Products and Wheat Follow the Surge
The optimism spread across other commodities:
- Soybean oil flipped from a net short to a net long of 30,125 contracts, driven by global vegoil price swings.
- Soymeal prices rose 3%, surpassing $300 per short ton for the first time in weeks. Managers still hold a net short of 97,630 contracts.
- Wheat hit a three-week high, closing at $5.55¾ per bushel, with money managers trimming net shorts by 10,000 contracts to 102,132.
Bearish positions persist in Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, with net shorts at 49,834 and 28,844 contracts respectively, reflecting lingering market caution.
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