India’s oilseed market is experiencing significant shifts, with diverging production estimates, declining oilmeal exports, and firm domestic edible oil prices. Government interventions through the Price Support Scheme (PSS) have led to record procurement, stabilizing soybean prices amid fluctuating global trends. While global soybean output is projected to rise, India’s domestic market remains protected by strong MSP-backed support and trade restrictions.
Diverging Production Estimates
India’s government projects a record soybean output of 15.1 million tonnes (MT) for the 2024–25 season, but industry estimates are more conservative at 12.6 MT, reflecting a decline in sowing. Soybean sowing fell to 11.83 million hectares this season, down from 12.54 million hectares last year, highlighting the uncertainty in production levels. To stabilize prices, the government has ramped up Minimum Support Price (MSP) procurement, purchasing 3.5 million tonnes of soybean and groundnut so far. Procurement is expected to exceed 6 million tonnes by the end of the season, marking a record high under the Price Support Scheme (PSS).
Oilmeal Exports Decline Despite Stable Soybean Meal Demand
India’s oilmeal exports declined by 12% year-on-year, falling to 3.93 million tonnes between April 2024 and February 2025. However, soybean meal exports remained steady at 1.94 million tonnes due to continued demand for non-GM varieties from Europe. Despite the overall decline, global factors such as Indonesia’s decision to raise palm oil export levies may tighten global edible oil supply, adding upward pressure on prices. Additionally, India’s domestic interventions and policy shifts are likely to prevent any significant drop in oilseed prices, even as global soybean output is projected to increase.
Global Soybean Output Expected to Increase
Globally, soybean production is expected to rise by 6.5% to 420.8 million tonnes in 2024–25, led by higher output from Brazil and the United States. However, India’s domestic oilseed market is insulated from global trends due to MSP-backed procurement and limited export competitiveness.
MSP Procurement Holds Prices Firm
MSP procurement for oilseeds, including soybean and groundnut, has already reached 3.5 million tonnes, with expectations to surpass 6 million tonnes this season. This strong government intervention has helped keep soybean prices stable, preventing any major price decline despite rising global inventories.
Outlook: Prices Likely to Stay Firm
India’s edible oil prices are likely to remain firm due to strong domestic interventions, muted oilmeal exports, and shifting global trade dynamics. While global soybean stocks may increase, India’s combination of record MSP procurement, trade restrictions, and policy shifts will continue to maintain upward price pressure in the domestic market.
