📈 Why Black Pepper Prices Are Climbing
- Reduced Production Yield
Kerala (and neighbouring Karnataka/Tamil Nadu) saw a production drop of around 10 % due to erratic weather—such as dry spells during flowering and heavy rains later—resulting in lower yields and constrained supply. - Earlier Supply Cutbacks & Stockpiling
Many farmers held back sale of their produce during earlier price slumps, while traders accumulated stocks at lower rates. As demand surges now, these stockists are making larger profits, even as current harvests remain small.
3.Strong Domestic Demand
Recovery in spice consumption in the domestic market (post-COVID slump when pepper prices fell to ₹250–270/kg) has lifted price sentiment to around ₹660/kg now. - Supply Gaps & Import Insufficiency
Though imports from Sri Lanka and Vietnam have hit the market, Indian pepper remains higher-priced due to perceived quality. And domestic output decline has created a mismatch that imports have not fully remedied.
🟢 Reasons for the Cardamom Price Spike
- Sharp Drop in Production
Cardamom yields in the high ranges of Idukki have declined by an estimated 30–40% due to warm weather, inadequate irrigation, snail/pest attacks, and wildlife damage. - Peaked Auction Prices
In Gujarat-based e‑auctions for Alleppey green cardamom, bids reached ₹3,120/kg, with average prices around ₹2,700–2,800/kg. Local markets are offering up to ₹2,750/kg in mid-range areas. - Price Controls via Grading & Lobbying
Large-scale traders often separate fine quality for export and may restrict auction prices (often between ₹3,000–3,500/kg) to continue buying cheaper grade from small farmers — limiting farmer gains. - Delayed Harvest and Stock Release
Many cultivators delayed harvesting due to bad weather, causing seasonal supply crunch. Those with stored stock are now benefiting from current demand peaks.
🔍 Summary Table
| Factor | Black Pepper | Cardamom |
|---|---|---|
| Production decline | ~10% drop, flower loss & monsoon swings | ~30–40% drop, pests & climate stress |
| Demand dynamics | Strong domestic intake, limited imports | High auction demand + export interest |
| Supply management | Farmers/traders stored stocks earlier | Harvest delays also tightened immediate supply |
| Market control patterns | Imports partly mitigate but price holds | Grading/export shifts limit small farmer gains |
💡 What It Means for Farmers
- Smallholders with stored stock from prior seasons are reaping gains during this price upswing.
- Continued high prices through the next season (e.g. Onam period) could help farmers recover losses from past low-price years.
- However, inconsistent prices, unclear land ownership (lack of registration for auctions), and limited irrigation remain obstacles for equitable benefit-sharing.
✅ Bottom Line
- Pepper prices jumping past ₹650/kg (to ~₹660) stem from a mix of production dips, rising domestic demand, and tight supply.
- Cardamom crossing ₹3,000/kg (with peaks at ₹3,120 via e-auctions) reflects deeper production shortfalls, auction-driven prices, and quality control dynamics.
- While lucrative for some growers and traders in the short term, sustained structural challenges may undermine long-term benefits for small farmers.
