Global Soft Commodities Update —
Cocoa futures leveled off after a sharp 5% surge last week, while both coffee and sugar posted modest gains amid shifting weather patterns and changing speculative dynamics in global markets.
📉 Cocoa
London Futures: Cocoa futures held mostly steady, down 0.3% at £6,626 per tonne as of 13:48 GMT. New York Futures: Barely changed, trading around $9,456 per tonne. Speculative Activity:
Hedge funds trimmed their net long positions in cocoa—New York saw a decrease of 2,303 contracts, while London positions dropped by 4,066 lots. The pullback reflects some profit-taking after last week’s aggressive price rally. Weather Watch:
West African weather forecasts indicate rains this week, though lingering dryness may still limit crop growth. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is projected to harvest around 1.8 million tonnes—well below its typical 2.2 million-tonne average. Port Arrivals:
Despite production concerns, cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports are up 6.8% since the season began, suggesting steady short-term flow.
☕ Coffee
Robusta: Jumped 2.6% to $4,451 per tonne. Arabica: Rose 1.1% to $3.594 per pound, supported by a notable drawdown in ICE-certified warehouse stocks. Global Supply Pressure:
While inventories continue to tighten, particularly for arabica, the market faces pressure from large robusta harvests in Brazil and Vietnam. This oversupply is dampening stronger price recovery.
🍬 Sugar
Raw Sugar: Gained between 1.1% and 1.2% to settle at 16.67 cents per pound, bouncing back from last week's four-year lows. White Sugar: Climbed 1.5% to $472.40 per tonne. Market Drivers:
An early and robust monsoon season is improving crop outlooks in India and Thailand. In Brazil, drier weather is expediting the sugarcane harvest, increasing global supply.
📌 Market Outlook
| Commodity | Near-Term Outlook |
| Cocoa | Stabilization likely as traders reassess fundamentals; all eyes on weather in West Africa and mid-season crop data. |
| Coffee | Modest upside supported by inventory drawdowns, though strong harvests could cap gains. |
| Sugar | Recovery in progress, aided by favorable weather and harvest pace, though oversupply risks remain a concern. |
🔚 Summary
Cocoa: Price surge pauses as traders lock in profits and assess crop developments. Coffee & Sugar: Rising steadily, buoyed by low inventories and harvest optimism, respectively. Market Focus: Future movements hinge on West African rains, speculator trends, and upcoming global supply-demand data.
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