New Delhi, September 2025 — The Indian Sugar and Bio‑energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has projected that India’s gross sugar production in the 2025‑26 sugar season will reach 34.90 million tonnes, an increase of roughly 18% over the current 2024‑25 season.
Key Drivers of the Increase
Improved Crop and Weather Conditions
ISMA identified enhanced cane quality in major producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, aided by good monsoon rains and favorable reservoir levels, as important contributors to the uptick in production.
- Stable Area Under Cultivation
Although acreage (area under sugarcane cultivation) has not seen a large increase, better yield, improved cane varieties, and favorable rainfall have helped drive higher cane output per hectare, particularly in key sugarcane‐growing regions. - Ethanol Diversion
ISMA estimates about 5 million tonnes of sugar will be diverted for ethanol production in 2025‑26, up from approximately 3.5 million tonnes in the 2024‑25 season. This diversion will reduce the net available sugar for traditional uses and exports.
Regional Variations & Risks
- Positive Outlook in Maharashtra, Karnataka — crop growth is healthy, aided by good rainfall in August and more favourable monsoon progression.
- Uttar Pradesh is expected to benefit from industry-level cane development initiatives and improved varieties, with disease incidence low.
- Tamil Nadu is also showing better yield and recovery than initially expected.
- Some northern states — notably Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand — may see minor declines in sugarcane (and thus sugar) output due to “flood‑like” conditions and localized issues. These are, however, not expected to significantly affect the national total.
Exports, Consumption & Carryover Stocks
- ISMA has suggested there is scope for exports of about 2 million tonnes of sugar in the 2025‑26 season, subject to government approvals.
- Domestic consumption is estimated to be roughly 28.5‑29.0 million tonnes, slightly up from previous years.
- Beginning the season, carryover or opening stock is expected to be lower than previous years. For example, for the new marketing year, ISMA forecasts opening stocks of around 5 million tonnes, down from about 8 million tonnes.
Outlook & Caveats
- ISMA has reaffirmed its 34.9 million tonne estimate after recent crop condition reviews, including satellite imagery updates (especially for states like Maharashtra and Karnataka), assessment of monsoon progress, reservoir levels, etc.
- However, ISMA plans to issue a more detailed advance estimate in October–November 2025, which may revise these numbers depending on weather, crop health, water availability, pests/diseases, etc.
- Even with higher gross output, net availability for consumption + exports will depend heavily on the level of diversion for ethanol and minimum selling price (MSP) of sugar, as well as policy decisions regarding export quotas.
