ARTICLE 2 #Sugar Prices

India, the world’s second biggest sugar producer, expects surplus sugar stocks in the 2025‑26 season (starting October 1) after meeting domestic consumption and ethanol production needs, which will allow it to export sugar. Ashwini Srivastava, joint secretary at the Department of Food and Public Distribution, told a global conference that after catering to internal demand, there will be enough sugar for exports.

Improved Crop and Weather Conditions ISMA identified enhanced cane quality in major producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, aided by good monsoon rains and favorable reservoir levels, as important contributors to the uptick in production.

India is set to fall short of its sugar export quota for the 2024–25 season, managing to ship only around 775,000 tons out of the 1 million-ton limit. This shortfall is mainly due to Brazil’s cheaper sugar flooding the global market, which has lowered international prices and made Indian exports less competitive. Additionally, higher domestic sugar prices in India discouraged millers from exporting. Industry players are now looking to carry forward the unshipped quota into the next season.

Despite a sharp drop in molasses prices, all sugar factories in Indonesia continue to operate without disruption, Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman confirmed on Friday. Speaking at a press briefing in Jakarta following a meeting with the Lampung Provincial Government and representatives of farmer associations, Minister Sulaiman dismissed concerns over a potential halt in sugar production.

The Food Ministry has allocated a domestic sugar quota of 24 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) for October 2025, starting from October 1. This is lower than the 25.5 LMT quota allocated for October 2024, though higher than September 2025’s quota of 23.5 LMT. Market watchers expect firm demand (especially with upcoming festivals) and foresee a price rise of ₹40‑50 per quintal in many regions.

Raw sugar deliveries for the October contract on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) were estimated at around 30,032 lots, equivalent to approximately 1.52 million metric tons, according to preliminary data shared by two sugar traders on Tuesday, September 30. The contract expired on the same day.