Corn futures retreated on Tuesday, as contracts across several months posted modest losses amid mixed fundamentals and technical headwinds.
📉 Market Movement
- Front‑month corn futures closed down by 1¼ to 2 cents in the session. The Cmdty View national average Cash Corn price fell by approximately 1¾ cents, landing at $4.04 ¾ per bushel. In the November/December “new crop” contracts, prices also slipped, consistent with broader contract declines.
🧠Drivers & Context
Several factors appear to be exerting downward pressure on the market:
Technical/Profit Taking Pressure
Some contracts pulled back from recent gains, possibly as traders book profits or respond to technical resistance levels.
Crop Progress & Weather Outlook
U.S. planting data in key states like Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wisconsin remain behind their 5‑year averages.
In Iowa, planting is about 18% complete (versus a 7% average) and in Nebraska it's 8% (vs. 5%). Wet weather in the Plains and Mississippi River regions could slow fieldwork this week.
Global Supply Adjustments
In South America, conditions are showing signs of improvement: China’s projections for Brazil’s corn output have been revised upward by 3 MMT to 125 MMT. Argentina’s expected corn production has also been increased by 2 MMT.
Policy & Report Uncertainty
The upcoming EIA data release is being watched, particularly to see if ethanol production rebounds after a recent dip. A government shutdown could delay the publishing of the USDA’s Thursday Crop Production report.
đź“Š Closing Prices (Select Contracts)
Nearby Cash Corn: $3.77 (up 1 cent)
December 2025 Corn: $4.19 ¾ (down 2 cents)
March 2026 Corn: $4.36 ¼ (down 2 cents)
May 2026 Corn: $4.45 ¼ (down 2 cents)
🔍 Outlook & Risks
- If weather conditions in the U.S. remain favorable, yields could hold strong, putting further downward pressure on prices. Conversely, any delays in planting or adverse weather could inject volatility into the market. Global supply projections, especially from Brazil and Argentina, will remain key to balancing U.S. supply outlooks. Market watchers will be closely watching the EIA and USDA reports for fresh cues on demand and production.
