ARTICLE 2 #India Commodities Updates

India’s government warehouses are overflowing. As of September 1, 2025, rice reserves—including unfilled paddy—have climbed to a record 48.2 million metric tons, a jump of over 14% compared to the same time last year. Wheat stocks, too, are at a four‑year high, reaching 33.3 million metric tons. These figures greatly overshoot government targets: for rice, the July 1 target is only 13.5 million tons, while for wheat the target is about 27.6 million tons.

Improved Crop and Weather Conditions ISMA identified enhanced cane quality in major producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, aided by good monsoon rains and favorable reservoir levels, as important contributors to the uptick in production.

India is set to fall short of its sugar export quota for the 2024–25 season, managing to ship only around 775,000 tons out of the 1 million-ton limit. This shortfall is mainly due to Brazil’s cheaper sugar flooding the global market, which has lowered international prices and made Indian exports less competitive. Additionally, higher domestic sugar prices in India discouraged millers from exporting. Industry players are now looking to carry forward the unshipped quota into the next season.

Despite a sharp drop in molasses prices, all sugar factories in Indonesia continue to operate without disruption, Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman confirmed on Friday. Speaking at a press briefing in Jakarta following a meeting with the Lampung Provincial Government and representatives of farmer associations, Minister Sulaiman dismissed concerns over a potential halt in sugar production.

The global palm sugar market is poised for steady growth over the forecast period 2025-2032, with market valuation expected to increase from US$ 2,197.40 million in 2025 to approximately US$ 2,776.90 million by 2032, representing a value-based CAGR of 3.4%. This growth is driven by rising consumer awareness regarding natural sweeteners, a shift towards healthier dietary alternatives, and increasing demand from the food and beverage industry, particularly in confectionery, bakery, and ready-to-eat segments.